The State of Reproductive Rights in the U.S. and What Trump’s Second Term Might Mean  

The November 2024 election, to the shock, delight, and despair of millions, saw Donald Trump re-elected as president along with a Republican-controlled House and Senate. As the nation prepares (or braces) for another Trump presidency, the question on the minds of millions of pro-choice and pro-life advocates alike is the same–what’s next? To understand where America’s going, one has to understand how it got here. 

In the summer of 2022, the United States erupted into political chaos when the Supreme Court overturned nearly 50 years of precedent and ruled that the Constitution does not protect the right to an abortion. This decision followed and finalized the decades-long struggle by pro-life activists to overturn the controversial Roe v. Wade case of 1973. The decision in Roe protected a woman’s right to an abortion for the first trimester of a pregnancy, with fewer protections for the second and third trimesters, and in all cases where her life is at risk. The decision was upheld in 1992’s Planned Parenthood v. Casey, which allowed some state regulations but noted that states may not place an “undue burden” upon women seeking an abortion. 

The controversial Dobbs v. Jackson case of 2022 eliminated the national protection for abortion, leaving it to states to decide whether or not women are able to receive abortions for unwanted or life-threatening pregnancies. During President Trump’s first term, he was able to appoint three conservative judges to the court–Justices Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Coney Barrett-all of whom contributed to the 6-3 decision in Dobbs. After two years, the debate over reproductive rights continues to rage as the nation carves itself up over where abortion is allowed or banned. 

In the months leading up to the Dobbs decision, several states passed abortion-related “trigger laws” that would restrict or outright ban abortion. These laws, unconstitutional under Roe, would be “triggered” and quickly put into effect if Roe was successfully overturned. Following Dobbs, the trigger laws and other bans were passed, rapidly changing the landscape on where abortion access is prohibited and allowed. 

According to The New York Times, twelve states have banned abortion in almost all circumstances and seven have instituted partial bans ranging from six to eighteen weeks. The bans are heavily congregated in (and totally encompass) the southern states, with other scattered placement in the midwest and western states. While the bans do not appear in every republican-led state, there is a predictably high correlation between the red state governments and the bans. Similarly, eleven states, all democrat-controlled, have passed legislation not only affirming but expanding abortion rights post-Dobbs. Thirteen states, with a strong mix of red and blue legislatures, have passed laws protecting abortion rights, showing that the issue is not precisely split along party lines. Two years have passed but the dust still hasn’t settled on the issue. In the 2024 election, seven states passed ballot measures protecting abortion and three states rejected similar measures.  

Like many advocacy groups, the pro-choice and pro-life camps continue their fights, alternately playing offensive and defensive. Pro-choice groups had some strong wins in the seven states where their ballot initiatives landed, but decisively lost nationally as the presidency, House, and Senate were all picked up by the Republican party. It seems that pro-life groups are again poised to take the offense in a big way in 2025 and beyond. 

“Project 2025,” a controversial 900-page document helmed by The Heritage Foundation detailing conservative initiatives for Trump’s second term, sparked intense scrutiny and backlash in early 2024. Despite the president-elect’s claims that he “[has] nothing to do with Project 2025”, the authors of the document include 144 former Trump administration, campaign, or transition advisors. The connections are numerous, making the document’s proposed abortion plans more and more relevant as January approaches. While it’s important to note that these plans are not official Trump administration policies, they point toward potential paths that the administration, or other Republican leadership at the national or state levels, may take to further restrict abortion rights. 

One of the most impactful potential plans in Project 2025 is one that would see Trump wield the FDA to revoke federal approval of mifepristone, the drug used in abortions. According to the Guttmacher Institute, medication abortions with mifepristone account for nearly two-thirds of all abortions in the U.S., due to its simplicity and accessibility via telehealth in states with stricter laws. Another related route would entail the enforcement of the Comstock Act, an 1873 law that prohibited the mailing of materials related to abortion. Other potential paths to abortion restrictions in Project 2025 include the elimination of Planned Parenthood from Medicaid, codifying the Hyde and Weldon amendments (relating to insurance coverage of abortion/reproductive healthcare), and prohibiting Title X funds from going towards any organization connected to the performance or funding of abortion. As of writing, Trump has not said whether or not he would use his executive powers to further restrict abortion.  

With the national executive, legislative, and judicial branches all under conservative control, as well as having no democratic equivalent to Project 2025, it’s less clear what pro-choice advocates and policymakers are planning for next year. The American Civil Liberties Union, in a piece highlighting and condemning Trump’s potential policies, outlines the counter-actions it will take in each circumstance (in summary–lots and lots of litigation). In this case, pro-choice Americans will have to wait and see if any national offense will be mounted or if the name of the game is simply to slow the pro-life powers down. 

In a post-Roe America, the vast majority of the battles over reproductive rights are being fought at the state level. As America nervously waits for the new Congress’s session to begin in January, it would also be wise to pay close attention to legislation being passed in one’s state, where a vote, protest, or conversation on the subject matters the most. 

Trump’s victory in the November presidential election has left many U.S. citizens deeply concerned with the future of women’s reproductive rights. 

After nearly 50 years of federally ensured access to abortion, birth control, and other reproductive healthcare, this sudden reversal was a shock to many Americans. A Pew Research Center survey found that since 1995, around 60% of Americans have consistently agreed that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. With Trump’s second term this upcoming January, these people are concerned not only for the future of abortion access but for things like birth control, IVF, and sexual education in schools. 

What were the legislative reactions to Roe v. Wade being overturned? 

With the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade came a flood of new regulations surrounding reproductive rights – specifically abortion. According to NPR, 14 states implemented total bans on abortion with exceptions only for cases such as rape or to save the life or health of the mother. A few more states, including Florida, have carried out six-week bans for abortion, which is often too early for most women to know they are pregnant. According to the National Library of Medicine, women with unintended pregnancies realize on average at 7.2 weeks, which is over a week after the window for legal abortions closes. Additionally, another half dozen states have restrictions that limit abortion after 12, 15, 18, or 22 weeks of pregnancy. 

Since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, reproductive healthcare has been a heavily debated topic in the United States. States like Missouri, Florida, and Texas put extreme abortion bans into direct effect following the outcome of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization in June of 2022. Abortion laws have varied across the nation ever since this reversal, causing increased polarization from state to state. This feeling of alienation harms the people who need this essential healthcare, especially since some earlier bans block women from choosing what they want before they are even aware they’re pregnant. This has left U.S. citizens wondering when – or if – a federal regulation will emerge.  

What are states doing to counteract this decision? 

One way some states are working to counter these restrictions and to prepare for Trump’s second term is by passing laws to eliminate waiting periods and gestational limits (the point within pregnancy when a termination is permissible) by allowing more types of providers like nurse practitioners, for example, to perform abortions. As reported by NPR, states like Michigan, Colorado, California, Minnesota, and others have been working to execute this, allowing more women access to timely and efficient reproductive care. Along with this, some states have expanded abortion access by passing shield laws. These are laws that protect healthcare providers from prosecution if they provide abortion across state lines. 

While shield laws are more efficient, NPR has found that states like Arizona, Montana, and even Missouri have enshrined abortion rights into their state constitutions. These three states now have legal abortion access until 24 weeks, which is considered fetal viability – the ability for the fetus to survive outside of the uterus or without relying on medical care. Though these states and others have secured reproductive rights for their citizens, it’s still up in the air as to what the federal regulations will be.  

Why was Roe v. Wade even overturned? 

The path that led to the reversal of Roe v. Wade and these regulations ultimately stems from changes in the composition of the Supreme Court. The L.A. Times outlined the significant reasons for this shift. The first major setup for the reversal occurred after Justice Scalia’s death in 2016. Senate leader Mitch McConnell refused to allow a vote on Obama’s nominee before he left office, which set the stage for a conservative shift in the court. Ensuing this, Trump’s 2016 victory allowed him to appoint anti-abortion Justice Neil Gorsuch to fill Scalia’s seat. Later in 2018, Justice Kennedy retired, opening a door for Trump to appoint conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh, securing a majority for overturning Roe v. Wade. The nail in the coffin occurred with the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg in 2020. This led to Trump appointing Amy Coney Barrett, giving the court a conservative majority, which overall led to the 6-3 decision that overturned Roe v. Wade.  

What does the future of reproductive healthcare look like in the U.S.? 

After Trump’s nomination of three Supreme Court Justices who helped to overturn Roe v. Wade, it would not be shocking if Trump’s administration continued to strip reproductive rights. While this is speculative, Trump has proven to be a highly unpredictable person and president, often going back and forth with his opinions. He initially criticized Florida’s 6-week abortion ban on Fox News saying, “They’re too tough, too tough. And those are going to be redone because already there’s a movement in those states.” However, he later stated that he would vote against Amendment 4 of the Florida Constitution, which would have protected abortion access up to fetal viability.  

According to AP News, Trump declined to state his opinion on whether he would veto a national abortion ban, yet weeks later after the Presidential debate he posted on Truth Social, his own social media platform, during the Vice-Presidential debate saying, “Everyone knows I would not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances, and would, in fact, veto it,”. Though Trump’s ambivalence will keep the public guessing his final move, he still aligns very closely with the Republican party being conservative himself.  

It’s hard to tell if Trump would support a national abortion ban, but it’s clear that his administration is in favor. Project 2025, a conservative proposal for policies across the board, explicitly states that abortion “...is not healthcare”. Severino then put the responsibility of respecting “...innocent human life from day one until natural death...” on the Secretary of Health and Human Services. This “deep respect” can be inferred to result in an abortion ban, and since the House of Representatives, Senate, Supreme Court, and President will all be of Republican majority come January 20^th, a nationwide abortion ban could be in our future.